Canada






By-election call coming?

The typical practice of this PM and the last one is to announce by-elections on a Sunday so, keep an eye out this Sunday morning for PM Trudeau to announce by-elections in two of the three ridings that are currently vacant.

I think the timing for a call this Sunday makes sense as the governing Liberals just announced Thursday that they had their candidate for Elmwood Transcona (a teacher, Ian McIntyre who ran, unsuccessfully, for the provincial Liberals in Kildonan-River East in the last provincial elections) and the Liberals also recently announced their candidate in another vacant riding — Lasalle—Émard—Verdun in Montreal, a riding previously held by former justice minister David Lametti and (as Lasalle—Emard) former PM Paul Martin.

Like Toronto St Paul’s, neither of these races should be worth watching and yet — they will be! Incumbents could be upset!

The Tories have chosen a card-carrying union electrician in Elmwood—Transcona and believe they can knock off the NDP. This is where a Blaikie has been the MP for most of the last 35 years. The Conservatives did win it in 2011 when Harper won his majority. My hunch: The NDP holds for now but, in the next general election, Elmwood-Transcona gets new boundaries which will bring in voters who live outside Winnipeg’s perimeter highway who are more conservative. So then E-T becomes a better bet for the Tories. Liberals are non-starters here.

In LEV, watch out for the New Democrat Craig Sauvé to throw yet another gut punch to the Liberals and stealing this riding to give the NDP its second Quebec MP! In the last provincial election, the Quebec Solidaire (whose voters might roughly map to the NDP) won a surprise but narrow victory in the provincial riding of Verdun in a three-way race where the Liberals finished less than one percentage point back. By law, PM must call the byelection there by July 30.

NDP Leader Jagmeet SIngh is in the riding Monday to campaign with Sauvé.

The BC riding of Cloverdale-Langley is also vacant. The former Liberal MP there, John Aldag, just accepted the nomination to be the BC NDP candidate in the next provincial election there. There will be fierce fight for the Conservative nomination there as that seat will almost certainly flip to the Tories. I haven’t heard of any movement to name a Liberal candidate there but the PM can leave that one vacant until Nov 30.

So I would expect this Sunday, we get byelections underway for ET and LEV but we wait a while for the Langley byelection. - DA

David Akin

The Provinces


Media

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David Akin

Science and tech

Issued this day ...

... in 1966. Scott #449: Atomic Research. Design: Alan L. Pollock.

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