Canada
In Mississauga, Poilievre campaigns with a city councillor looking to upend a Trudeau cabinet minister
After his swing through Northern Ontario last week, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre headed to the GTA to do some campaigning. He's been in this region plenty often since become leader and it would not surprise me if, from here until election day, he's in the GTA at least once a month if not more often. Conservatives break the Liberal stranglehold in this part of the country and that, as they say, is the ball game.
So, on Friday and/or Saturday (his office does not normally tell us media types where he's going so we have to find out what he's done after the fact by monitoring his social feeds), Poilievre spent time in Brampton East on a canvas with his candidate there Bob Dosanjh Singh; he attended a Tamil Joythi Festival event in the riding of Scarborough North; held a mini-rally in Markham; and spent time canvassing with his candidate in Mississauga--Streetsville, Sue McFadden. The picture accompanying this post is from Poilievre's social feeds and shows McFadden and her leader looking for votes.
McFadden has been a Mississauga City Councillor since 2006. The article I've linked to in this post is from February and contains some useful background on McFadden's political career. McFadden will be looking to unseat [Rechie Valdez)[https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/cabinet/honourable-rechie-valdez], who, when she was elected in 2021, became the first Filipino-Canadian to sit in the House of Commons and subsequently became the first Filipina in cabinet when PM Trudeau named her Minister of Small Business at the end of July in 2023.
The riding of Mississauga-Streetsville is in the city's northwest corner, bordering Brampton to the north and Milton to the west. Its boundary will be slightly adjusted for the next election but not enough that it tips the scale necessarily towards one party or the other. The riding has elected a Liberal in each of Trudeau's three campaigns but in 2011, voters in Miss-Streetsville contributed to the Harper majority by electing Brad Butt. The current Ontario Liberal leader and former Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie held the seat before that. But other than Butt's breakthrough in 2011, this part of the GTA has not gone blue since Mulroney's 1988 win.
Given current federal polling trends in Ontario and the GTA, Poilievre currently has a solid chance to do what Harper and Mulroney did and put Streetsville in his column. My model has McFadden beating Valdez if an election were held this month by 8 points or about 3,900 votes. And my model gives extra weight to Valdez for being an incumbent and for being a cabinet minister.
As for the other ridings, Poilievre was in on Friday/Saturday, Brampton East looks to be a tight race but as Liberal Maninder Sidhu won by 28 points in 2021, he may have enough cushion to scrape by Dosanjh Singh by less than 1,000 votes or 3 points. Turnout and voter enthusiasm for a close race like that will be critical. Over in Scarborough North, where a small-c conservative has not won since Mulroney's first majority win in 1984, three-term Liberal Shaun Chen won by nearly 50 points (19.6K votes) in 2021 and surely he can hold on to that kind of lead. Or, given Toronto--St Paul's, can he? I think that, in a general election, he should hold though I do not have confirmation yet that he is indeed re-offering. If he does, my model has him winning by 30 points or 10K votes. I am not aware of a nominated Conservative candidate in Scar-North. (I'll repeat again: Neither the party nor the OLO keeps us posted as a matter of course about their affairs). -DA
Liberals borrow 'weird' tactic from Democrats in latest attack on Pierre Poilievre
Several Liberal MPs, including one cabinet minister, have used the word to describe Poilievre on social media in recent days. So we're into the name-calling phase of campaigning for your vote: Liberals are calling the Tories "weird" which follows weeks of the Tories calling the Liberals "wacko". On the ballot in 2025: Wacko, Weird-o, or Sellout-Singh!
Trudeau makes unscheduled stop at Vancouver's Pride events does not walk in parade
Trudeau also made an unannounced appearance at a festival in Surrey Sunday celebrating 77 years since South Asians in B.C. won the right to vote in Canadian elections.
How modular housing could speed up construction of much-needed homes
The federal government is aware more productive methods are needed so it's pushing for modular construction, where homes are fully or partially assembled in a factory before onsite installation.
The Provinces
Federal cabinet minister Pablo Rodriguez being sought to lead Quebec Liberal Party
The party will choose its new leader next June. Former Montreal mayor Denis Coderre is so far the only official candidate in the race. Rodriguez began his political career in Quebec, where he was a member of the provincial Liberals' youth wing in the 1990s. He has been a Liberal MP from 2004 to 2011, and again since 2015.
It’s all about the UCP leadership review
Protected rights for the unvaccinated and tax cuts aimed at appeasing unruly UCP members ahead of November vote.
Look ahead to New Brunswick
The Writ: Will Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives win a third consecutive election when New Brunswickers are called to the polls in October (or, perhaps, sooner), or will Susan Holt score a win for her Liberals in a national climate that is turning against her party’s brand?
Elsewhere
Ukraine's Zelenskyy displays newly arrived F-16 fighter jets to combat Russia in the air
Ukraine’s newly arrived F-16 fighter jets have been put on display by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said the planes will boost the country’s war effort against Russia.
Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina resigns, interim government to be formed
Media reports said she had flown in a military helicopter with her sister and was headed to the eastern Indian state of West Bengal just across the border
Iran using covert influence campaign to undermine Trump candidacy, US intelligence says
The US intelligence community has “observed Tehran working to influence the presidential election, probably because Iranian leaders want to avoid an outcome they perceive would increase tensions with the United States,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in a statement.
Australia raises terror threat level to ‘probable’ from ‘possible’
Officials cited an increase in extremist views in the country leading to a more than 50% chance of the planning of an onshore attack in the next 12 months.
[Press release] Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the EU on post-election developments
The European Union thus calls for further independent verification of the electoral records, if possible by an internationally reputed entity. The U.S. has rejected the results. The EU is a little more circumspect.
What can brands learn from Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign?
“There’s been a lot of work done behind the curtain and speed and timing has been essential,” says Teemu Suviala, global chief creative officer at Landor, noting how few branding projects require such an incredible turnaround. “But in order to build momentum, you have to go big and faster, and enter into culture.
Media
The day AI clones took over a Swiss radio station
“We are a creative radio station so let's try to see what the machine can and cannot do. That's why we tried it. We wanted to have this as the starting point of discussion with our audience to understand how it feels like to listen to radio that is made by a computer.”
Reader Notes
NEW This newsletter now has a Telegram channel. If you’re on Telegram, follow the channel and tell me what you think!
Science and tech
How to find your oldest social media posts and delete them
Some posts may be best forgotten — but it’s up to you to get rid of them.
The Calendar
- 0930 ET: L'Étang-du-Nord, QC - BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet and BQ MP Kristina Michaud meets with fisheries operator.
- 1100 ET: Havre-aux-Maisons, QC - BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet and BQ MP Kristina Michaud meets with a CERMIM representative.
- 1445 ET: Whitehorse, - Women and Gender Equality Min Marci Ien speaks to reporters.
