Carney effect. Houston's changes. Ukraine security.  February 19th 2025

Federal vote intention tightens to near-tie as Liberals and New Democrats rally around Carney

In the hypothetical scenario with Carney as leader, the Liberals perform strongly in Ontario and Quebec, where they are in a statistical tie in vote intention with the CPC and BQ respectively. Freeland cedes ground in Ontario and Quebec to those two parties respectively when voters are presented with her as leader (see detailed tables). The Freeland Liberals also perform worse in Alberta (17% Liberal) compared to the Carney Liberals (27%). The two leaders generate the same support in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (24%), but neither potential leader makes much headway into the massive CPC lead in the Prairies.

Liberal leadership race: Mark Carney leads fundraising efforts

Financial data published by Elections Canada shows Mark Carney raised $1.9 million for his leadership bid for the Liberal Party of Canada. Chrystia Freeland's campaign said she has raised $600,000 👇 though that information is not yet published by Elections Canada. Also: according to Elections Canada, neither Freeland nor Karina Gould have borrowed any money to finance their campaigns. But the Carney campaign took out a $150,000 loan from BMO. Frank Baylis lent his own campaign $50,000 while Ruby Dhalla lent her campaign $25,000. Those Baylis and Dhalla loans, however, will have to be paid back by their campaigns. No one individual -- including the candidates -- can contribute more than about $1,700 a year to a leadership contestant.

Allan MacMaster nominated to represent federal Conservatives

MacMaster has served as Opposition House Leader and deputy premier. He’s also been minister of a number of departments, including the Finance and Treasury Board, Communities Culture, Tourism and Heritage, Labour Relations, Gaelic Affairs, and the minister responsible for the Voluntary Sector. That's the kind of resumé that should get you into cabinet if the Poilievre Conservatives form government. Now the trick will be getting MacMaster elected in a riding with significant new boundaries. Last fall, when MacMaster quit Tim Houston's cabinet to seek this federal nomination, my model had this riding as an easy win for the Tories, probably by 10 points or more. And then the incumbent Liberal here, Mike Kelloway, announced his intention to seek the nomination in the other Cape Breton riding, Sydney--Glace Bay, a riding where the current Liberal incumbent, Jaime Battiste, also intends to run. But in the meantime, Liberal fortunes in Atlantic Canada have rebounded and this now looks like a toss-up with a slight lean - 0.6% -- to the Liberals.

Halifax-area Liberal MP will not seek re-election

In the general election of 2015, Liberal Darrell Samson won an upset win against one of the country's most popular New Democrats, Peter Stoffer, in the riding of Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook. On Tuesday, Samson announced that he will not seek his fourth straight win and will step aside. Click through on the link to read his statement.

The riding gets significant new boundaries for 2025 and, as a result, becomes much more Liberal-friendly. In 2021, with the current boundary, Samson got 18.8K votes but transposing the 2021 polls on to the new boundaries of Sackville-Bedford-Preston, the Liberals have 25.8K votes, a 7,000 vote improvement and one of the biggest swings as a result of a re-draw in the country.

Even still, when Liberal fortunes were at the nadir last fall, I had the Liberals barely holding on to this riding. My model at that time had it as "LPC HOLD" by just 1.7 points. Today, with Liberal fortunes improving, I would expect the Liberal candidate who will succeed Samson to win by more than 14 points if an election were held now.

The Conservatives have nominated musician Dave Carroll to run here. -DA

[Press release] Black Canadians in Politics: Research Explores Enhancing Inclusivity

In addition to releasing the comprehensive “Black on the Ballot” report last month, rooted in dozens of interviews and the first-ever national survey of Black Canadians in politics, the collaboration has also yielded a trove of archival datasets and an engaging four-episode podcast hosted by Nana aba Duncan, Carleton’s Carty Chair in Journalism, Diversity and Inclusion Studies.