Canada
The Federal Liberals’ New Year’s Eve Nightmare: Party vote intent sinks to 16%, Trudeau approval at all-time low
It represents the lowest level of support for the party in Angus Reid Institute tracking dating back to 2014. It is also quite possibly the lowest vote intention the Liberals have ever received in the modern era. Even in the worst electoral performance in the party’s 157-year history, the 2011 election under then leader Michael Ignatieff, the Liberals received 18.9 per cent of votes from Canadians, and at minimum 17 per cent in polling leading up to that election.
Latest model: CPC wins 230; BQ forms official opposition
Incorporating the latest findings from Angus Reid into my seat projectiong model I end up where I think pretty much every seat projection modeller is: A whopping Conservative majority. But until today, I had the Liberals remaining, albeit barely, as the official opposition. No longer.
My model, based on the latest polls from Abacus, Angus Reid, Ekos, Ipsos, Leger and Nanos (n=6,672 / Dec 4-27 ) returns the following results:
- CPC : 230 seats
- BQ : 43
- LPC : 37
- NDP : 31
- GPC: 2
At 230 seats, the CPC would control 67 per cent of the seats in the House of Commons. That would be the 7th strongest majority of all time. The Liberals in 2015 won 54 per cent of all seats. The strongest majority, measured by percentage of seats won, was Diefenbaker in 1958 when the PCs that year won 208 of 265 seats or 78.5 per cent. To match that record, a party in the next House of Commons would need to win about 270 seats. -DA
Bloc Québécois as official Opposition? Leader says Canadians 'don't have to fear us'
As Justin Trudeau's minority government teeters and polls point to a possible collapse of the Liberal vote, Blanchet said he's staying focused on earning the confidence of Quebecers. "Quebecers will give us a mandate, and we'll carry it out responsibly by always repeating to ourselves, I hope, that we have to live with modesty," he said.
NDP MP says he won't play Poilievre's 'games' to bring down Trudeau
“I have a long and consistent record of opposing Mr. Poilievre’s tactics. I do not believe he is fit for leadership and will not support his procedural games,” said NDP MP Charlie Angus, in an email to National Post, in a reference to a Conservative ploy to use the public accounts committee to quickly bring down the government in January.
[Press release] Government of Canada announces extension of 2024 charitable donations
The federal government announces an extension of the deadline to donate to charities in the 2024 tax year. You can now donate until Feb. 28 and get a tax receipt for last year. This extension is something the premiers had called for. -DA
Cybersecurity of Personal Information in the Cloud
The 44th Report of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.
DM Gillis retires
Kelly Gillis After a rich and rewarding career, I am retiring from the federal public service. It has been a privilege to spend over seven years as Deputy Minister at Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada. Together, in partnership with provinces, territories, municipalities and Indigenous communities, we’ve made a real difference for Canadians.
The Provinces
Furey Outlines Key Demands for Federal Government Ahead of Possible Election
One of those asks is for a federal government that will commit to revisiting the equalization formula – which is something government is taking the current federal government to court on.
Heightened security for Manitoba politicians appears to be a sign of the times
Wab Kinew, elected premier in 2023, is followed by security inside the legislature and when he's out at public events and press conferences. He is driven in a large vehicle with someone always at his side.
Elsewhere
Norad paying ‘full attention’ to Chinese-Russian air co-operation
The head of the North American Aerospace Defence Command says Chinese and Russian air co-operation in the Arctic has Norad's 'full attention.'
Limited contact, constant surveillance: Canada’s ambassador to Russia on life in Moscow
“I would say there is a somewhat hostile atmosphere. That’s not new, although it has intensified since the invasion of Ukraine,” Ms. Taylor said in a video interview from Moscow. “The feel, for a Canadian or Western diplomat, is quite Cold War-like, with one exception – that there are a lot of Eastern European countries that are now part of NATO and not part of the Warsaw Pact.” (🎁 link)
How Elon Musk Has Planted Himself Almost Literally at Trump’s Doorstep
For much of the period since Election Day, the billionaire has been staying at a $2,000-a-night cottage at Mar-a-Lago, giving him easy access to the president-elect. (🎁 link)
Media
Colorado man accused of attacking TV reporter, saying ‘This is Trump’s America now’
Patrick Thomas Egan, 39, was arrested Dec. 18 in Grand Junction, Colorado, after police say he followed KKCO/KJCT reporter Ja’Ronn Alex’s vehicle for around 40 miles (64 kilometers) from the Delta area. Alex told police that he believed he had been followed and attacked because he is Pacific Islander.
Is academic writing getting harder to read?
At his blog, Tyler Cowen passes on links to an article in The Economist: We found that, in every discipline, the abstracts have become harder to read over the past 80 years. The shift is most stark in the humanities and social sciences (see chart), with average Flesch scores falling from around 37 in the 1940s to 18 in the 2020s. From the 1990s onwards, those fields went from being substantially more readable than the natural sciences—as you might expect—to as complicated. Ms Louks’s abstract had a reading-ease rating of 15, still more readable than a third of those analysed in total.
Science and tech
Ten cool science stories we almost missed
Bronze Age combat, moral philosophy and Reddit's AITA, Mondrian's fractal tree, and seven other fascinating papers.
IFS function
Love passing along Excel tips and here's a function I did not know about until I saw it on a Threads account called ExcelSkillsLab: If you have spreadsheets with multiple nested IF statements -- that'd be me! -- the IFS function super-simplifies all of that. Also: If you've got Excel or Google Sheet tips like this, please pass along. -DA