Canada




Liberals have their candidates in 2 eastern Ontario Tory strongholds

The Liberal Party of Canada recently announced its candidates for the 45th general election in two ridings where Conservatives are almost certain to prevail. The first is the riding of Carleton -- which happens to be where I live -- where the Liberals almost knocked off the incumbent, Pierre Poilievre, in 2015. But since then, the incumbent has become the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and may yet be the next prime minister of Canada. Bruce Fanjoy, though, is unimpressed and, as the Liberal candidate in the riding of Carleton, will try to deprive Poilievre of his seat in the House of Commons. It is a long-shot bet for Fanjoy. Poilievre won by nearly 20 points in 2021 and the new boundaries of Carleton include the rural/Conservative portions of the former riding of Kanata--Carleton. So Carleton has likely become more Conservative, not less. My model right now has Poilievre lapping his Liberal opponent by 44 points or 35,000 votes.

Next door to Carleton is the riding of Lanark-Frontenac, home to Conservative incumbent Scott Reid. This riding is even more of a lock, IMO, for the Conservatives. Nonetheless, Liberal Michelle Foxton is gamely aiming for Reid's seat with a campaign that suggests Reid ought to be disqualified because his family is the owner of the regional retailer Giant Tiger, which does indeed sell groceries and other household goods. Think of it as a very mini version of Wal-Mart; a store where you can get your kids' winter coat, a lamp for your spare room, as well as frozen sausage and fresh tomatoes. In the Liberal formulation here, the Reid family must be just like those evil billionaire grocers, the Westons and, as a result, Reid must be evil as well.

Reid is one of the longest-serving MPs in the House, having been elected as a Canadian Alliance MP in 2000. Reid beat a Liberal incumbent in that election, Ian Murray, who had won in the 1997 general election, the last time a Liberal won in this part of Ontario. Reid is currently chair of the Conservative caucus and, if an election were held this spring, might be expected to win by 46 points.

So good luck to candidates Fanjoy and Foxton and if there is any consolation to be offered: It will be much, much more difficult for the New Democrats running in both those ridings. -DA

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Issued this day ...

… in 1898: Scott #75: Queen Victoria “Numeral” Issue - 1¢ grey green. Photograph: W. & D. Downey.

All of these scans, as I've mentioned here before, are from my collection of Canadian stamps. The collection is about 3,000 strong but only 18 were issued in the 19th century. This is ninth oldest stamp in my collection which I acquired for all of -- ahem -- 20 cents :)

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